Thursday, December 13, 2012

Converted, just barely, and reluctantly, caveats apply.

I have for a long time been against growing food for fuel.  Using up the nutrients of the good earth, and our dwindling water supply to blow it through a cylinder and into the air we breath.  Then there's the issue of shifting the grain economy from the food chain to energy, with a none to suttle impact on food prices and the environment.  Either the food shelves will have fewer products at a higher price, or more jungle and marginal land must be stripped of nature, flushed with chemicals and thrown into monoculture production.   So far all this is a moral and logic issue.

All that and I still didn't point out, corn to fuel is nearly a break-even.  It takes about one unit of energy to make one unit.  We use oil to make fertilizer, for pesticides, herbicides, trucks to deliver all that crap, tractor and combine fuel to farm and harvest it, energy to pump water to it, trucks to deliver it, fuel to distill it, more fuel to deliver it to market.  And then you have ethanol with fewer calories than fossil fuel gas, meaning fewer btu in the cylinder.  Now, good news, maybe.  The last couple years the new distilling methods are a little more efficient, and they are making progress using cow poo, and corn stalks and some kinds of grass.  I don't know the ratio now but they can make more than a unit from a unit of energy.  OK, hauling corn stalks off for this sounds good till you understand laying on the field they are a form of fertilizer, stop erosion and provide a place for small game to hide.  Clearing these off may be one more mistake.

So am I converted after all that?  Maybe.  Here's why.

Under Obama we have more drilling in the US, more new production coming on line than any time in history.  Palin got her wish, drill ding bat drill.  We could in 10 years be an oil exporter.  According to all the bullshit this will make oil cheaper.  If your bullshit alarm isn't slapping like a derelict metronome then let me point out, oil prices are set in the world market, no matter the local supply.  The price is set  by the driver in India filling up, not by a smart ass blonde in white pants on TV with pictures of happy people and sunsets and promise of lower price fuel.  So all that to say oil prices do not go down if we drill a well, or a butt load of'm.  Look at the US, Canada, and Japan.  US produces less than it needs, Canada more, Japan none.  All three have the same price fluctuations for transportation fuel. World demand, not a surplus or a dearth set the price.

Vulnerability is what we have now in transportation.  Single source.  Almost 100% of US transport is oil driven.  To make it even more scary, the oil has to go through a refinery.  The US has no excess.  For years and years refineries have run at maximum capacity.  No reserve.  Every time there is a fire or one shuts down for repairs prices soar.  US transportation is at extreme risk for two reasons, the source and the bottleneck processors.

Electricity is not that risky, we have a reasonable set of overlapping sources.  Coal, dirty fucking stuff, natural gas, and nukes.  These are our primary sources, in that order, though coal is being changed out at a fast pace mostly with NG.  Then we have wind, growing, it produces several percent of our needs already, in a few areas it is substantial.  Solar, biomass, hydroelectric dams, a few geothermals and a few other smaller forms help out.  The electric sources are getting more diverse, the risks growing smaller.

Transportation.  Getting to work or to the casino to piss away your money is a concern sure, but think of where your going to get food or viagra next week if the trucks are out of gas, damn.  The mormons are OK, they keep a years worth of food on hand, and when I was a kid we had home canned food, might have been a years worth if you had to eat grandma's yucky canned mincemeat.  So........

I'm starting to think using corn for fuel might be OK, just barely.  But all those reasons against it are eating on me.  And ethanol still gets mixed with gas, so it doesn't solve much does it?  It won't lower prices, it may raise them.  And therein is the little peg I hang onto, however weak.  Higher prices, and a little bit of diversity in the fuel sources may be a good thing.  Why?  Higher prices will incentivize hybrids, high mpg cars, and electric cars, public modes, and conservation.  Electric cars are on the way, they have their place, and they use a fuel from multiple sources - electricity, it's trending towards cleaner all the time.    The EV models coming next year or so have a little better range, and that will grow year to year.  Trucks too are dinking around with EV's.  UPS and Fed-ex are both using EV's in some small city markets, it's a learning process, and they will get there.

One more thing, I have a farm, raise corn some years.  But I want it to go for food.  I can't wait for  electric tractors some day with a solar paneled cabin.  That would be cool.   Yea, I'm not sure yet about my conversion, I could backslide.  I did once before, went to a camp with a bunch of thumpers, said me too, then on a hike the hottest girl there was setting so I could see her legs, winking and flipping her hair around, yea I don't think that conversion took.



2 comments:

  1. Don't remember where, but in the past year or so I saw a delivery truck that was a hybrid. I think it was a Coca-Cola truck.

    If I win the Powerball I'm getting me a Tesla roadster.

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    1. Kulkuri, Oh a Tesla would be a hefty purchase, I hope you can win it and get one. I read of the Chevy Volt owners 92% said they would buy another one. I have a 08 Toyota Camry Hybrid, love it, It is suppose to have the highest customer satisfaction of any car on the road. So far tires, gas and oil is all it's cost me. When I bought it it cost 800 more for the hybrid, paid for that in savings about a year ago. I get from 37 to 40mpg per tank.

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