Thursday, March 31, 2011

The Bates Motel of energy ideas

Up until the disaster in Japan of the GE built reactor, the US nuclear industry was all but dead.  I work in heavy industry, and I can tell you the capacity to make large components for new plants in the US is almost nil.  If  more are built, much of the large forgings and machining must come from Japan, China, Germany, France, Italy, US content will be small on the big ticket items.    But the real reason it was stalled was money.  No one can be sure what it costs to build a new plant here, no bank or company wants to risk the billions and spend 5 to 8 years making it.  These things are hugh and the giant components of exotic materials are very long lead items.  The pay back is long.  And alternative energies and dirty coal make the return on investment over this very long build cycle very unappealing.  Thus, the lobbyist and the Congress they own will spend tax money to partially fund it and then give it to industry so that they may profit.  At the moment we have the proof of the folly of it, it seems the clowns have the loudest voice, and the industry has another chance to do us harm.  Capitalism?

Above are containers of nuclear waste.  No solution exists in the US to dispose of it, none.  This crap is hot for the next 5,000 generations.   So, why should we not be afraid?

Here is the media/industry/political story.  Don't worry, (a) the event in Japan is 1 in 500 years, (b) most reactors are not the type that failed.  Story (a) is for people who failed math.  Probability estimates the chance of happening, it offers no insurance of the frequency, it could happen again tonight.  Story (b) is suppose to be good news, but your "bullshit" detector should be shrieking like a guest in the Bates Motel shower.   If we look at Three Mile Island, that was a different reactor and it failed in a way that had never occurred.  Chernobyl was another kind of reactor, and it failed under conditions and events that had not happened before.  The Japanese reactor was different from the other two, and it failed in a new way.  So, we wait for the 4th failure, with a different design, and under circumstances  unforeseen.   A nuclear energy generation plant is one of the most complex machines made, with chains of redundant devices, chains of mechanical and electrical components, chains of monitoring devices, layers of human operators.  While this may sound reassuring it should be the opposite, this machine, every machine, without knowledge or intent is testing every possible combination of events and hazards every minute of it's service life, and without fail it will fail, it will find the weakest link in the chain and break it.  In short, engineers joke about complex machines as having too many potential points of failure, too many tent poles, break one and the whole thing falls in on you.
Obama, and the Congress, and the bankers, should find something else to do and forget this source of energy.

3 comments:

  1. the yellow fringe:

    When one has to wait so long for a return, an investment in nuclear energy ceases to be sexy, especially for a politician.

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  2. Whit, you are right, and this is why we will have to watch for smoke and mirror slight of hand tricks of the government funding them and giving them to industry. Just this morning headlines in Kansas are a federal judge in Washington (state) overturned the permit to build a coal fired power plant in Kansas. It was discovered the Agriculture Department was going to pay for a large part of the plant, which the judge found is illegal, the Ag Dept has no mandate to fund major energy projects. How can that be? Brownback (now the gov of Kansas) was a high ranking member of the agriculture committee and had a heavy hand in it. This same plant was in the news a couple years ago when the state EPA turned it down due to pollution, the head of the state EPA was fired, and the staff has been mostly layed off, the only thing they kept was the rubber stamps.

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  3. fringe -

    There are just too many potential serious problems with nuclear energy. The known problems begin with the enormous cost of establishing a nuclear power plant. Costs for a new reactor can run as high as $15 billion, making it extremely cost-prohibitive for most communities, and even most nations.
    Then there is the small problem of what to do with nuclear waste. The highly radioactive byproducts of nuclear fission create a massive health and security hazard, and remain so for thousands of years. There is currently no easy way to handle nuclear waste. There are no "fail-safe" ways to provide nuclear energy. At every reactor, it is not a matter of "if" but "when" there will be a problem.

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