Sarge over at One Angry Zebra has harped on the competition over the Arctic Sea for months. Frankly I thought he was correct but over-reacting, it wasn't likely to become a series of incidents like the cold war, ships ramming one another, subs bumping, hasty coffee house meetings of diplomats scheming how to keep their countries leaders under control, from lurching into hostilities.
Well, Assange, if thats the spelling, the Wiki-Leak guy comes to Sarge's rescue, in that Sarge was right. Wiki-Leak has let go a series of cables that show we are already involved in skullduggery and low level threats, and not alone, Russia is in the middle of it, and appears, I say appears because these things are never clear, to be getting quickly verbally aggressive. A number of meetings have involved threats and tirades by Russian military claiming they will not be defeated on these issues. Russia is claiming large swaths of the Arctic as their territory, far out and near other nations who as expected do not agree. Russian subs are scattering markers on the sea floor, as if as Spanish landing in the new world, throwing down a marker solves it.
At stake, shipping lanes, deep water oil, fisheries, perhaps deep water mining. The players are Russia, Canada, US, Denmark and Norway as primary players, secondary are Greenland (administered by Denmark), Sweden and Finland.
Why now? Global warming. The ice pack is getting thinner, and smaller, fast, very fast. If we could halt this thawing of the ice, then it wouldn't much matter, most this issue will fade. If it continues then anything is possible, the seas fished out, ships moving about, oil rigs and spills the norm, and yes the arming of the Arctic coasts and the sea. More oil on the market when we should be moving off it. How can anyone deny global warming based on what is going on here, and what better reason to halt it, halt the madness.
And, oil companies, their equipment suppliers, and military contractors see a whole new shiny cash register to be filled.
ReplyDeleteFringe:
ReplyDeleteCould global warming cause another Cold War? Geopolitics is surely being affected by global warming.
One world, one population, one set of resources. Until we start acting that way we will have a mess. And we will never act that way.
ReplyDeleteThere is no "fair." Arm yourself and take what you can. And express outrage when somebody else does the same.
Whit,
ReplyDeleteYes, the cold warming war. I am gathering a list, one day I may use it on a post, a list of military leaders and organizations around the world as well as intelligence agencies sounding the alarm to deaf governments and industry. Their message is the environment (storms, droughts, etc.) is going to collapse and cripple economies in many nations, leading to competition and conflict, stress internal and external, fixing it gets harder all the time. Look at the billions the Mississippi is costing today, snow in the northeast last winter, storms are increasingly harsh. The environment controls the economy, not the other way around.
NAC,
ReplyDeleteDarwinism for resources, it really could come to that, hopefully the public and nations will act and we may have a chance to slow the change. We have to, you cannot move the worlds agriculture, that is impossible, plants are adapted to a very narrow range of temperatres, and more importantly to soil types.
Vindication of my views! Yatta!
ReplyDeleteThe big thing the squids have been doing is a communications interoperability thing for our submarines operating in the Arctic. Fringe is most correct on what the vodka lovin sons of Satan are up to.
Obama just opened up oil exploration in the US owned seas NW of Nome - one of them friggin Alaskan Aliut names that nobody can spell - But, here is a thought: Bristol Bay is hazardous daily - the Bering Sea is worse. Once the ice finally melts - what? Another ten years? Then just how calm will the polar region waters be? Will we see Atlantic hurricanes that
develop in the warm water of the Atlantic off Africa follow the Atlantic Current and turn nw into the Arctic due to the warmer waters?
How does weather fit into the mix?
Sarge, Weather is everything, the only way to stop it is if the ice ceases it's retreat. As for the rigs and ships that brave the shallow open areas until more blue water shows up, they face a hell of ice and storms and months of dark. Insurance companies will not underwrite shipping beyond a few special situation ventures until more blue water emerges. Just hope we don't end up with blue water arctic, and the militarization of it.
ReplyDeletewe are on a tiny, tiny, speck of dirt floating through space with millions and billions of stars, planets, and galaxies, and some of us are wanting to fight over some melting ice.
ReplyDeletegeezzz